So here we are… Lots of questions, too much to do. But I’ve turned off the world to try and get out an update.
I worry about this:
At the end of day 1, we had sold 335,688 tokens and the price closed at $3.008 off a high of $3.94. If we sell another 300,000 tokens, given the pool ratios that are about 100,000 on Uniswap and 200,000 on Dodo, the price is no longer on the chart above.
And, this is a capital raising exercise. V2 of Dodo is about to be released and this was always a milestone for us to harvest some $ and ramp up the development. And we agreed not to do any more private sales. And the consistent money maker in this whole exercise is the wallet running the arbitrage between the pools. And, and, and…
If someone dropped $20 million in my lap tomorrow, half would go to development, half would go to liquidity. I don’t know if it’s the trader in me, or the engineer, I just keep looking at the price curves and see the volatility. For years I have watched price action in the FX markets and the psychological levels are real. A while back, the bounce on GBPUSD @ 1.20 was pronounced, it really didn’t hang around. We recently punched through to an ATH of around $13, which was above the silly spikes in the early days and we can see the effects.
You can easily eyeball the numbers from $10–15/wCRES; it’s only about 40,000 tokens that need to be sold. Our biggest wallet is 36,880 tokens. So if someone wants the title at $10, we’re above $15. If he decides $15 is his level, we’re back to $10. That is quite the ride, and before we factor in the arb bot that is taking money out of all our pockets. Which brings me back to my original worry in Figure 1. If we design the pools perfectly, their size is representative of the volume traded. In our recent run, the Uniswap pool is 4x the volume of the Dodo pool, and the Dodo pool is 2x the size of Uniswap. Factor of 8x which is good for arb, not great for the community. So now we’re in it and the solution is clear.
We know we had one of the fairest distributions for a token launch (see the early story if you haven’t already). Balancer LBP is a great tool which might be useful again. We also put a lot into Uniswap so that we could have a proper size pool and wouldn’t turn into a s-coin if we had a mass exodus. Now does it seem fair to drag everyone into the steepness of the AMM/PMM rocket ship? The other side of this argument is that we have a community. As the name suggests, it is time to start asking for some help.
Big problem, simple answer: more liquidity.
How? Liquidity mining and another exchange, in that order.
Rob and I had several chats about what might happen in the early days with the tokens, so many what ifs… And here we are, nowhere near where we would have guessed. Now I know how Han Solo felt after the Kessel run: